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Investment Commentary

Each quarter our internal research team provides an update on the global markets and how our portfolios are positioned to navigate through the current environment.

Q3 2021 Commentary

In the President’s Update of this quarter’s commentary, Kevin Dehod introduces Saket Mundra and Liliana Tzvetkova, the co-managers of our U.S. Equity Portfolio. Saket and Lilly share how clients will benefit from our newly-expanded portfolio team, and why a position in Amazon was initiated this quarter.

 

 

Early in the pandemic, we were shocked to see record demand for nice-to-have items despite being in the throws of a huge recession. In retrospect, we know this was caused by the rise in average household incomes and savings due to generous government programs, while outlets to spend those dollars fell as travel and other services were – and still are – limited.

In this stage of our economic recovery, our attention turns to how the pandemic has affected supply chains globally, and what impact this is having on our markets worldwide. 

From our dedicated research team, this quarter’s commentary brings you these insights and more:

  • Supply chain disruption – short and long-term impacts on companies and consumers
  • Rising fertilizer prices around the world and M&A movement in the Canadian equity market
  • What potential rate increases and easing of supply chain bottlenecks could mean for our U.S. portfolio
  • The unravelling of Evergrande and its affect on Chinese banks and companies 
  • How the Fed and Bank of Canada are positioned for their inflationary policy goals 


Click here to read the commentary or
download a PDF copy by clicking here

Past Outlook Commentary

Q2 2021

In Q2 2021 Commentary video, Kevin Dehod, President & CEO sat down with Trevor Fennessy, Senior Planner at T.E. Wealth to discuss how a comprehensive financial plan can help achieve lasting financial stability and peace of mind.


The heatwave that Canadians recently experienced is somewhat of a precursor to what’s shaping up to be a scorcher of a summer from an economic standpoint. Provinces are demonstrating forward momentum in easing COVID-19 restrictions, which is key in the hand-off from government support programs back to the real economy.

With 67% of Canadians having received at least one dose of the vaccine as of end of June (ranking us as world leaders), fully vaccinated individuals will soon catch up. This will result in even more restrictions being lifted, which will unleash many economic catalysts that we’re looking forward to.

In this quarterly commentary, our research team shares insights on:

  • What’s signaling a hot economic recovery 
  • What the energy sector rebound means for our Canadian portfolio 
  • Our favourable U.S. portfolio performance and the ongoing debate of growth vs. value, inflation vs. disinflation
  • How Italy is benefitting from the €750B European recovery package
  • Inflation concerns and higher interest rates as we continue on the growth path


Click here to read the commentary or
download a PDF copy by clicking here

Q1 2021

In our Q1 2021 Outlook Commentary video, Gil Lamothe, lead of the Canadian Equities portfolio, joins our President & CEO, Kevin Dehod, to share what he loves the most about his role, the importance he places on client relationships and how the new Canadian research team is positioned to manage the portfolio.

 


To go along with the video, is our written Outlook Commentary where we discuss how companies prepare to ramp up business due to pent up demand, low interest rates, and higher savings levels. As more of the population gets vaccinated, we expect strong economic growth once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.

In this commentary, our Research Team analyzes trends in four markets and touches on several key themes including:

  • An increase in M&As in Canada due to low interest rates and aligned shareholder interests 
  • The rotation from defensive to cyclicals in the U.S., as expansion advances 
  • A steepening yield curve beneficial for cyclical companies and Europe and the impact of shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity
  • The Fed’s Average Inflation Target changing the game and opportunities in inflation hedges for Fixed Income investors


Click here to read the commentary or
download a PDF copy by clicking here

 

January 2021

In the first Outlook Commentary of 2021, our team is reflecting on the unprecedented months we are leaving behind as a means to establishing our plan for the year ahead.

The start of a new year calls for enhancements, which for us can be primarily granted to our team expansion as a result of CWB’s recent wealth acquisition. In this Outlook video, Kevin Dehod, our President & CEO, with Scott Blair, CWB Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Officer, and Ric Palombi, Director of Research and Head of International Equities, discuss the improved structure within our research team. This progression adds value to our clients by incorporating depth to our research process and harnessing our team’s expertise to its full potential. In this video, Scott and Ric also share the key themes that will be shaping the markets in 2021.

 

To complement this discussion, our research team is also providing insights on various topics through a written Outlook commentary

  • Key developments in the reflation trade and opportunities for economic growth in the international markets
  • The disproportionate recovery of the U.S. market, the risk of high expectations and the compelling risk-reward opportunities found in the banking sector
  • Benefits of an active investing approach and the reasons we initiated a position in a Canadian telecom company for the first time in a decade
  • How fixed income bond yields are expected to grind higher and how our portfolio is positioned in an environment where interest rates continue to normalize

Click here to read the commentary or download a PDF copy by clicking here

Q4 2020
2020 has taught us the importance of Patience & Perseverance, both on a personal level and from a research perspective. Our research team discusses how these two qualities are intertwined in our investment philosophy and process in our last Outlook Commentary of the year.
Q3 2020
Our special edition of the Outlook Commentary, Stampede-themed, is here! Throw on your cowboy boots and watch our research team embrace the Calgary Stampede spirit while providing timely market updates and answering your questions. Filmed on the Calgary Stampede grounds, this quarterly Outlook Commentary provides insights on the implications of governmental debts, opportunities in the fixed income world, finding intrinsic value in the tech sector, our perspective on the upcoming US elections, and more.
Q2 2020
We can’t control this environment or when life will return to normal again – what we can control is our own behaviour. By remaining resilient and disciplined in the execution of our investment philosophy and process, we share how we’re emphasizing companies with strong balance sheets, balancing our exposure to both cyclical and defensive names, and finding opportunities to ‘high grade’ our portfolios.

* Please excuse the quality of angles of the camera – we did our best to film in our respective homes.
Q1 2020
As we begin 2020 we find ourselves entering this new decade with many markets near all time highs, yet the uncertainty and volatility continues. In the first Outlook Commentary of the year our research team shares how they are finding value from their active investment approach in these challenging conditions.
Q4 2019
Markets may be at an all-time high, yet fear continues to overshadow the current environment. With the dichotomy between market sentiment and market performance, our team manages risk by cutting through the noise of ongoing headline turbulence and macro uncertainty. In this quarter's Outlook video series, we share our views on the global markets and the stocks we’re finding value in through this ‘confusing’ environment.
Q3 2019
When two economic Superpowers like USA & China engage in a trade war, investors fear significant collateral damage on global economies and markets. An environment that gave investors hope at the beginning of the year soon gave way to fear and uncertainty– chief among them a “prolonged” trade war, recession risk and uncertain monetary policy. As investors, we must balance between the short-term pain of companies trying to navigate the trade war with the gain that will come when the trade is resolved.

In our Outlook Video Commentary, our research team discusses adjustments made to our portfolios in response to the ever changing risk-reward dynamic of each individual stock.